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+EV Sports Betting Comparing Odds To Pinnacle?
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Has anyone tried a method of taking Pinnacle Sportsbook’s odds, converting them to non-Vig probabilities, and finding +EV bets by scanning through sports books to make profit in the long run rather than trying to pick winners?
Top Comment: That's how you win and get banned.
[Discussion] How to: Positive EV Betting
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Hello boys and girls,
The following has been bothering me from time to time. People continuously hammering on only making positive EV bets, now.. this is not me saying I don't see why this should be done, however I do feel some extra explaining needs to be done! Me personally, as an example, take the entire positive/negative betting with a grain of salt. I'd rather make less than what I "deserve" (Negative EV bet), than to just throw away skins. (Positive EV bet)
There are certain things that need to be taken into account when going for a negative/positive EV bet.
- How negative exactly is your bet?
CSGL odds 77-23 vs. personal odds of 75-25 is an entirely different negative EV bet than 90-10 (CSGL) vs. 75-25 (personal). - Are you taking any parameter into consideration while making up personal odds?
e.g. Home team, map, stand-ins, current form of a team, LAN/Online etc. etc. - Does the underdog team actually have chance of winning the game or are you just hoping they will perform like sudden gods and miraculously win the game for big skins?
- Is there a hype train?
Now, this isn't just a post to somehow hate on people that have been pointing out you should only do positive EV bets or whatever. However, I did somehow feel the urge to point out why certain people would rather take a chance at winning less than what should be gained with personal odds instead of placing a (useless) skin on the underdog and hope for that upset.
I respect each and every person in how they bet and under what believe of what is the best way to bet, it should be no more than fair if everyone else did so as well. And when commenting on a post/comment/prediction/analysis, please try and stay civilized.. meaning give facts/opinions why someone should be wrong instead of just pointing out "flaws".
Disclaimer *I am no professional better or better in any other scene other than CSGL (CS:GO items), therefore my actual knowledge on betting isn't that professionalized as certain other people here. However, if I enjoy my personal way of betting.. shouldn't I just be free to do so? :)
To everyone who has won more than me by only making positive EV bets, which most likely will be everyone lol, I'm happy you actually make many skins/valuable skins by doing these kind of bets and hope (for your sake) you continue doing so.
EDIT: Feel free to throw in any argument, I'm open for any kind of (useful) discussion as long as we can remain civil and thus have a real discussion and not some sort of e-peen flame war.
Top Comment:
If we assume you're behaving rationally, I think what you're saying is that you are loss averse.
You'd probably love to bet on team that has a 90% chance to win on CSGL, but you give them a 95% chance to win.
But you'd avoid betting on a team that has a 5% chance to win on CSGL, but you give them a 10% chance to win.
If you look purely at the figures, that behaviour is irrational (assuming you have a big enough bankroll). If you take into account the psychological effects - ie you're happier winning many small amounts rather than one big one (even if the big one is bigger than the sum of the small), then you can argue that it is rational.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_aversion
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loss_aversion
I go to great lengths to interpret my behaviour as rational ;)
+EV Betting Limitors Ontario Using Oddsjam : arbitragebetting
Main Post: +EV Betting Limitors Ontario Using Oddsjam : arbitragebetting
How viable/rewarding is +EV Betting
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I've circled around +EV Betting for a little while now. I think it makes sense from a mathematical standpoint. Your simply monitoring one book you deem smarter than the other, and looking for inefficiencies.
It sounds like sites like Oddsjam simply compare odds to Pinnacle, look for reasonable margins, and display it in their app/dashboard.
I guess I bring this up, because before I spend time developing webscrappers and other sort of tech, I have to imagine others have been down this road. Obviously this whole strategy falls apart if the one sportsbook that is your truth is not as sharp as you'd think, or limited small margins requiring a ton of volume to even make a dent.
I guess I just wanted to start this thread to get a feel on if people here even think its worth the time? the Math makes sense, and if I could automate everything up to the notification then it less becomes a problem looking for opportunities, but at the same time the strategy seems to simple. It makes me wonder if there just aren't a ton of qualifying bets, the sportsbooks are sharper than you think, or you immediately would just get limited doing such a thing.
Top Comment: +EV betting isn't a math equation, it's an outs equation If you have good data and can bet unlimited amounts, you'll make a shit ton of money. But if you're banking on having your MGM and PointsBet accounts for longer than a few months you're crazy
User-friendly Positive EV betting calculator
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Hi,
After noticing the major mistake of almost every positive EV calculator I decided to code one, that truly can calculate the expected value of the odds.
How do most EV bet calculators get the job done?
- You insert the desired stake, insert the overpriced odds that you want to place a bet on, and in the third field they ask you to insert the win probability of the outcome in %...
Jokes on you...good luck figuring out the true statistical chance by yourself and using 3 more calculators until you get the final result...and you just wasted 2-3 minutes on a single bet..if you are skilled.
What my calculator is capable of?
- You insert the overpriced odds, the stakes you want to use
- AND the odds for the same outcome from a sharp bookie like Pinnacle
- + the odds for the other outcome from the same sharp bookies
Why is this method significantly better?
You just have to find the match from a sharp bookie and the calculator takes into calculation:
- The house edge on that specific market at the sharp bookie and calculates the true odds from that.
- After knowing the true odds, it can easily calculate the statistical chance of your outcome
- And in the final step, it will display the +EV of your odds in % and also the value you can expect on that bet in winnings
Check the positive EV betting calculator here if you will need it at any time ;)
Top Comment: nice job!
Question about plus EV betting
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So I’ve heard OddsJam has plus EV bet finder where they estimate the true probability of all bets and then find the ones with the largest positive EV. Obviously one can make models with a bunch of data and some domain knowledge about a sport to model the true probability, but as far as I can tell OddsJam just uses the odds from the bookies themselves.
I’d imagine one could estimate the true probability by doing something simple such as averaging the odds (without the vig) from major bookies. Or doing something similar but only looking at the sharpest bookies (which might be difficult because this could vary by sport?).
In sum, is building such a system yourself profitable/worth the time? And if so are there any specifics on best practices people have found for determining the true probability? Thanks for your help, am new to this world so any info helps!
Top Comment: I haven't run through tens of thousands of samples to prove any kind of long-term answer, but I have been tracking a few months' worth of stuff as a side project. If you want to scrape a few years' worth of odds from a site like Sports Book Review, you could find a more conclusive answer. What I've found in my very limited sample is that it does seem to depend on the sport. College Basketball went strong for three months, NBA did nothing but lose money for three months. I also have noticed, as you might expect, that the edges are very small. If every book in town is listing -135 and you can get -130, that less than a 1% difference. More commonly, I find numbers like -118 consensus that I can get for -115, which is closer to 0.5% difference. So I can see how it might be tricky to make any real profit with this approach. Still, your question is "is it worth the time?" and I'd say yes, it is. Even if you don't use the data as your sole strategy for placing bets, it's absolutely worth it to have market consensus information in your toolbox. I use it here and there as a reference point when one of my own model's lines looks a little skewed. I've used it as a fallback on some occasions when I need a fast number, or my model hiccupped and missed a game, situations like that.
Calculating EV, how is it done in sports betting?
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Could someone explain how you calculate EV in sports betting? No need to explain the concept of EV, I’m already familiar. Just looking for how sports sharps are calculating it.
Top Comment: These comments are incorrect. https://www.techopedia.com/gambling-guides/what-does-ev-mean-in-betting#:~:text=Expected%20Value%20(EV)%20is%20one,and%20how%20a%20sportsbook%20will . EV is the true probability of the bet pitted against the odds the book is giving. It's + EV when the real odds are more favorable than what the book gives. Finding real odds is a different story. But EV is real odds vs the bet. I guess for some they believe that implied odds and real odds are the same thing, or nearly the same thing. But I'm not so sure anyone has shown this to be true.
Free +EV betting (value betting) software
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Hi everyone!
I'm not sure if everyone knows about it, but surebet.com offers 100% free positive EV software without time or profit limitations.
Unfortunately, it focuses only on pre-match value bets, but it covers 500+ bookies—many from the US and hundreds from Europe and Africa.
While other services are more accurate (I advise checking the lines at sharp bookies before placing the bets) and scan odds faster, I believe a free tool is essential for many newcomers who want to test the waters without having to pay for a service ;)
You can also check their 5 top/best performing services compared in the following article.
Have a nice weekend :D
Top Comment: Speed is the name of the game tho... has anyone here switched from OddsJam to one of the cheaper platforms? (Smartbettor, juice reel, infinity sports, etc)
r/PositiveEVbetting
Main Post: r/PositiveEVbetting